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Registro completo
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
Fecha : |
12/11/2015 |
Actualizado : |
09/10/2019 |
Tipo de producción científica : |
Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales |
Autor : |
MARCAIDA, M.; ASSENG, S.; EWERT, F.; BASSU, S.; DURAND, J.L.; LI, T.; MARTRE, P.; ADAM, M.; AGGARWAL, P.K.; ANGULO, C.; BARON, C.; BASSO, B.; BERTUZZI, P.; BIERNATH, C.; BOOGAARD, H.; BOOTE, K.J.; BOUMAN, B.; BREGAGLIO, S.; BRISSON, N.; BUIS, S.; CAMMARANO, D.; CHALLINOR, A.J.; CONFALONIERI, R.; CONIJN, J.G.; CORBEELS, M.; DERYNG, D.; DE SANCTIS, G.; DOLTRA, J.; FUMOTO, T.; GAYDON, D.; GAYLER, S.; GOLDBERG, R.; GRANT, R.F.; GRASSINI, P.; HATFIELD, J.L.; HASEGAWA, T.; HENG, L.; HOEK, S.; HOOKER, J.; HUNT, L.A.; INGWERSEN, J.; IZAURRALDE, R.C.; JONGSCHAAP, R.E.E.; JONES, J.W.; KEMANIAN, R.A.; KERSEBAUM, K.C.; KIM, S.-H.; LIZASO, J.; MÜLLER, C.; NAKAGAWA, H.; NARESH KUMAR, S.; NENDEL, C.; O'LEARY, G.J.; OLESEN, J.E.; ORIOL, P.; OSBORNE, T.M.; PALOSUO, T.; PRAVIA, V.; PRIESACK, E.; RIPOCHE, D.; ROSENZWEIG, C.; RUANE, A.C.; RUGET, F.; SAU, F.; SEMENOV, M.A.; SHCHERBAK, I.; SINGH, B.; SINGH, U.; SOO, H.K.; STEDUTO, P.; STÖCKLE, C.; STRATONOVITCH, P.; STRECK, T.; SUPIT, I.; TANG, L.; TAO, F.; TEIXEIRA, E.I.; THORBURN, P.; TIMLIN, D.; TRAVASSO, M.; RÖTTER, R.P.; WAHA, K.; WALLACH, D.; WHITE, J.W.; WILKENS, P.; WILLIAMS, J.R.; WOLF, J.; YIN, X.; YOSHIDA, H.; ZHANG, Z.; ZHU, Y. |
Afiliación : |
MARIA VIRGINIA PRAVIA NIN, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay. |
Título : |
A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. |
Fecha de publicación : |
2015 |
Fuente / Imprenta : |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015, v.214-215, p. 483-493. |
ISSN : |
0168-1923 |
DOI : |
10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013 |
Idioma : |
Inglés |
Notas : |
Article history: Received 6 March 2015 / Received in revised form 29 July 2015 / Accepted 20 September 2015 / Available online 1 October 2015. |
Contenido : |
ABSTRACT.
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2]increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulatingclimate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2].
© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. MenosABSTRACT.
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in... Presentar Todo |
Palabras claves : |
Climate change; CROP MODEL; Emulator; MAIZE; Meta-model; MODELIZACIÓN DE LOS CULTIVOS; RICE; Statistical model; WHEAT; Yield. |
Thesagro : |
ARROZ; CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO; MAÍZ; MODELOS ESTADISTICOS; TRIGO. |
Asunto categoría : |
A50 Investigación agraria |
Marc : |
LEADER 05363naa a2201417 a 4500 001 1053856 005 2019-10-09 008 2015 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d 022 $a0168-1923 024 7 $a10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013$2DOI 100 1 $aMARCAIDA, M. 245 $aA statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. 260 $c2015 500 $aArticle history: Received 6 March 2015 / Received in revised form 29 July 2015 / Accepted 20 September 2015 / Available online 1 October 2015. 520 $aABSTRACT. Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2]increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulatingclimate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2]. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 650 $aARROZ 650 $aCAMBIO CLIMÁTICO 650 $aMAÍZ 650 $aMODELOS ESTADISTICOS 650 $aTRIGO 653 $aClimate change 653 $aCROP MODEL 653 $aEmulator 653 $aMAIZE 653 $aMeta-model 653 $aMODELIZACIÓN DE LOS CULTIVOS 653 $aRICE 653 $aStatistical model 653 $aWHEAT 653 $aYield 700 1 $aASSENG, S. 700 1 $aEWERT, F. 700 1 $aBASSU, S. 700 1 $aDURAND, J.L. 700 1 $aLI, T. 700 1 $aMARTRE, P. 700 1 $aADAM, M. 700 1 $aAGGARWAL, P.K. 700 1 $aANGULO, C. 700 1 $aBARON, C. 700 1 $aBASSO, B. 700 1 $aBERTUZZI, P. 700 1 $aBIERNATH, C. 700 1 $aBOOGAARD, H. 700 1 $aBOOTE, K.J. 700 1 $aBOUMAN, B. 700 1 $aBREGAGLIO, S. 700 1 $aBRISSON, N. 700 1 $aBUIS, S. 700 1 $aCAMMARANO, D. 700 1 $aCHALLINOR, A.J. 700 1 $aCONFALONIERI, R. 700 1 $aCONIJN, J.G. 700 1 $aCORBEELS, M. 700 1 $aDERYNG, D. 700 1 $aDE SANCTIS, G. 700 1 $aDOLTRA, J. 700 1 $aFUMOTO, T. 700 1 $aGAYDON, D. 700 1 $aGAYLER, S. 700 1 $aGOLDBERG, R. 700 1 $aGRANT, R.F. 700 1 $aGRASSINI, P. 700 1 $aHATFIELD, J.L. 700 1 $aHASEGAWA, T. 700 1 $aHENG, L. 700 1 $aHOEK, S. 700 1 $aHOOKER, J. 700 1 $aHUNT, L.A. 700 1 $aINGWERSEN, J. 700 1 $aIZAURRALDE, R.C. 700 1 $aJONGSCHAAP, R.E.E. 700 1 $aJONES, J.W. 700 1 $aKEMANIAN, R.A. 700 1 $aKERSEBAUM, K.C. 700 1 $aKIM, S.-H. 700 1 $aLIZASO, J. 700 1 $aMÜLLER, C. 700 1 $aNAKAGAWA, H. 700 1 $aNARESH KUMAR, S. 700 1 $aNENDEL, C. 700 1 $aO'LEARY, G.J. 700 1 $aOLESEN, J.E. 700 1 $aORIOL, P. 700 1 $aOSBORNE, T.M. 700 1 $aPALOSUO, T. 700 1 $aPRAVIA, V. 700 1 $aPRIESACK, E. 700 1 $aRIPOCHE, D. 700 1 $aROSENZWEIG, C. 700 1 $aRUANE, A.C. 700 1 $aRUGET, F. 700 1 $aSAU, F. 700 1 $aSEMENOV, M.A. 700 1 $aSHCHERBAK, I. 700 1 $aSINGH, B. 700 1 $aSINGH, U. 700 1 $aSOO, H.K. 700 1 $aSTEDUTO, P. 700 1 $aSTÖCKLE, C. 700 1 $aSTRATONOVITCH, P. 700 1 $aSTRECK, T. 700 1 $aSUPIT, I. 700 1 $aTANG, L. 700 1 $aTAO, F. 700 1 $aTEIXEIRA, E.I. 700 1 $aTHORBURN, P. 700 1 $aTIMLIN, D. 700 1 $aTRAVASSO, M. 700 1 $aRÖTTER, R.P. 700 1 $aWAHA, K. 700 1 $aWALLACH, D. 700 1 $aWHITE, J.W. 700 1 $aWILKENS, P. 700 1 $aWILLIAMS, J.R. 700 1 $aWOLF, J. 700 1 $aYIN, X. 700 1 $aYOSHIDA, H. 700 1 $aZHANG, Z. 700 1 $aZHU, Y. 773 $tAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015$gv.214-215, p. 483-493.
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INIA Las Brujas (LB) |
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Tacuarembó. |
Fecha actual : |
16/10/2014 |
Actualizado : |
15/10/2019 |
Tipo de producción científica : |
Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales |
Circulación / Nivel : |
Internacional - -- |
Autor : |
CUBBAGE, F.; KOESBANDANA, S.; MAC DONAGH, P.; RUBILAR, R.; BALMELLI, G.; MORALES OLMOS, V.; DE LA TORRE, R.; MURARA, M.; HOEFLICH, V.A.; KOTZE, H.; GONZALEZ, R.; CARRERO, O.; FREY, G.; ADAMS, T.; TURNER, J.; LORD, R.; HUANG, J.; MACINTYRE, C.; MCGINLEY, K.; ABT, R.; PHILLIPS, R. |
Afiliación : |
FREDERICK CUBBAGE, Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA; SADHARGA KOESBANDANA, Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA; PATRICIO MAC DONAGH, Universidad Nacional de Misiones (UNAM), Misiones, Argentina; RAFAEL RUBILAR, Universidad de Concepción, Concepcioón, Chile; GUSTAVO DANIEL BALMELLI HERNANDEZ, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA), Uruguay; VIRGINIA MORALES OLMOS, Weyerhaeuser Company, Melo, Uruguay; RAFAEL DE LA TORRE, CellFor, USA; MAURO MURARA, Universidade do Contestado, Santa Catarina, Brasil; VITOR AFONSO HOEFLICH, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, Brasil; HEYNZ KOTZE, Komatiland Forests (Pty) Ltd, South Africa; RONALDS GONZALEZ, Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA; OMAR CARRERO, Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA; GREGORY FREY, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA; THOMAS ADAMS, New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd., New Zealand; JAMES TURNER, New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd., New Zealand; ROGER LORD, Mason, Bruce, & Girard, Oregon, USA; JIN HUANG, Abt Associates, USA; CHARLES MACINTYRE, Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA; KATHLEEN MCGINLEY, n International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest Service, USA; ROBERT ABT, Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA; RICHARD PHILLIPS, Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA. |
Título : |
Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk. |
Fecha de publicación : |
2010 |
Fuente / Imprenta : |
Biomass and Bioenergy, 2010, v. 34, no. 12, p. 1667-1678 |
DOI : |
10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.05.008 |
Idioma : |
Inglés |
Notas : |
Article history: Received 10 November 2009 / Received in revised form 31 March 2010 / Accepted 31 May 2010. / Available online 29 June 2010. |
Contenido : |
We estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America e Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay e were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each country, with most having Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) of 20% per year or more, as did teak. Pinus species in South America were generally closer to 15%, except in Argentina, where they were 20%. IRRs were less, but still attractive for plantations of coniferous or deciduous species in China, South Africa, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the United States, ranging from 7% to 12%. Costs of wood production at the cost of capital of 8% per year were generally cheapest for countries with high rates of return and for pulpwood fiber production, which would favor vertically integrated firms in Latin America. But wood costs at stumpage market prices were much greater, making net wood costs for open market wood more similar among countries. In the Americas, Chile and Brazil had the most regulatory components of sustainable forest management, followed by Misiones, Argentina and Oregon in the U.S. |
Palabras claves : |
EUCALYPTUS; FINANCIAL MODELS; FOREST PLANTATIONS; INVESTMENT RETURNS; PINUS; RISK. |
Thesagro : |
FORESTACIÓN. |
Asunto categoría : |
K10 Producción forestal |
URL : |
http://www.ainfo.inia.uy/digital/bitstream/item/3567/1/Balmelli-2010-Biomass.pdf
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Marc : |
LEADER 02586naa a2200469 a 4500 001 1051156 005 2019-10-15 008 2010 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d 024 7 $a10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.05.008$2DOI 100 1 $aCUBBAGE, F. 245 $aGlobal timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk. 260 $c2010 500 $aArticle history: Received 10 November 2009 / Received in revised form 31 March 2010 / Accepted 31 May 2010. / Available online 29 June 2010. 520 $aWe estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America e Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay e were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each country, with most having Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) of 20% per year or more, as did teak. Pinus species in South America were generally closer to 15%, except in Argentina, where they were 20%. IRRs were less, but still attractive for plantations of coniferous or deciduous species in China, South Africa, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the United States, ranging from 7% to 12%. Costs of wood production at the cost of capital of 8% per year were generally cheapest for countries with high rates of return and for pulpwood fiber production, which would favor vertically integrated firms in Latin America. But wood costs at stumpage market prices were much greater, making net wood costs for open market wood more similar among countries. In the Americas, Chile and Brazil had the most regulatory components of sustainable forest management, followed by Misiones, Argentina and Oregon in the U.S. 650 $aFORESTACIÓN 653 $aEUCALYPTUS 653 $aFINANCIAL MODELS 653 $aFOREST PLANTATIONS 653 $aINVESTMENT RETURNS 653 $aPINUS 653 $aRISK 700 1 $aKOESBANDANA, S. 700 1 $aMAC DONAGH, P. 700 1 $aRUBILAR, R. 700 1 $aBALMELLI, G. 700 1 $aMORALES OLMOS, V. 700 1 $aDE LA TORRE, R. 700 1 $aMURARA, M. 700 1 $aHOEFLICH, V.A. 700 1 $aKOTZE, H. 700 1 $aGONZALEZ, R. 700 1 $aCARRERO, O. 700 1 $aFREY, G. 700 1 $aADAMS, T. 700 1 $aTURNER, J. 700 1 $aLORD, R. 700 1 $aHUANG, J. 700 1 $aMACINTYRE, C. 700 1 $aMCGINLEY, K. 700 1 $aABT, R. 700 1 $aPHILLIPS, R. 773 $tBiomass and Bioenergy, 2010$gv. 34, no. 12, p. 1667-1678
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